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Prediction for CME (2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-11-02T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18161/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a long-duration M1.6 flare from AR 12891 and a corresponding eruption signature can be seen in the available SDO AIA imagery toward the center of the Earth-facing disk as early as 2021-11-01T23:37Z. The shock was most probably caused by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-01T18:38Z CME and exhibited a dramatic increase in B_tot first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in temperature the next morning. There was an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-04T01:16Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

Initial shock speed: 1150 km/s
Solar wind speed: 500 km/s
Duration time: 2.0 hrs

Lead Time: -6.53 hour(s)
Difference: -5.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2021-11-04T01:55Z

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